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Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth

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posted on 2023-08-30, 17:50 authored by Rangan Gupta, Xin Sheng, Mehmet Balcilar, Qiang Ji
This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs.

History

Refereed

  • Yes

Volume

41

Page range

101823

Publication title

Finance Research Letters

ISSN

1544-6123

Publisher

Elsevier

File version

  • Accepted version

Language

  • eng

Legacy posted date

2020-11-06

Legacy creation date

2020-11-06

Legacy Faculty/School/Department

COVID-19 Research Collection

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