Exploring novel techniques to assess food price shocks

Food systems represent a significant risk to financial and political stability in a number of regions around the world. The Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University has been building models, gathering data and developing methods to explore the dynamics involved in civil unrest, financial instability and local responses associated with food production shocks. These include agent based modelling, systems dynamic modelling, narratives, scenario development, access to weather systems monitoring and war gaming. However, the analysis techniques applied to understanding historic food price dynamics as a result of production shocks are simple econometric tools such as regression testing. A much more sophisticated approach to data analysis could yield new insights in historic price shocks that would better inform policy and market based responses.