Perissi Ilaria_Complex Systems modelling to plan a Sustainable Future.mp4 (1.38 GB)
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Complex Systems modelling to plan a Sustainable Future

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posted on 10.10.2022, 13:09 authored by Ilaria PerissiIlaria Perissi

In this short video (10 minutes), Dr Ilaria Perissi tries to respond to the following questions:


What is modelling? 

How do climate scientists do it? 

Why should we listen to models? 

Can models predict the future? 


Models can help work out what has caused observed climate warming in the past and how big a role natural factors play compared to human factors. Scientists run many different experiments to model climates of the past, present and future: changing the models’ parameters it is possible to simulate what would happen if, for instance,  we suddenly quadrupled CO2 emissions, or if new technologies were used to cool the climate. However, models are not prophecies, they are computing machines designed to explore the “cause and effect” in the real world! It is true, however, that models can affect the future. In other words, by acting on the results of a good model, it is always possible to work in the direction of a better future. But….to use a model wisely, one must be able to understand it!


Ilaria would like to thank Victoria Tait, Lecturer in Education for Sustainability, who suggested basing the video on the previous questions. The video has been then used as a tutorial in the teaching Module “What if imagination could save the world?”  Victoria leads at ARU’s Global Sustainability Institute.  

Funding

H2020 - MSCA - PLEDGES - Grant Agreement ID: 101023109

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