An Analysis and Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in East England Region

Purpose: Diabetes Mellitus has emerged as a leading cause of mortality in the United Kingdom (UK), posing a significant public health concern. With 4.3 million diagnosed cases and a surge of 148,951 registrations in 2021-22, the gravity of the issue is evident. In light of this, health education authority needs to understand and analyse regional population health profiles to produce a means of addressing current and future gaps in the workforce and inform workforce planning. To facilitate this need, this study aims to investigate the complex interrelationship between demographics factors, socioeconomic factors, and access to healthcare service provisions, including levels of deprivation, population density, number of General Practitioner (GP) practices, and list size of GP practice, along with their impacts on the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus within the six Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) in East England. Additionally, the study projects future changes in these factors and assesses the potential impact of these changes on healthcare workforce requirements in the studied regions.

Methods: The findings were derived from econometric regression models. Demographic analyses were performed at both the ICS and regional levels.

Results: Demographic analyses revealed that decreasing number of GP practices, increasing deprivation levels, larger GP list sizes, and higher population density are all linked with increased number of registrations. However, regional disparities exist.

Conclusion: As the prevalence of diabetes remains a critical public health issue, understanding the influences of various socioeconomic and demographic factors, and access to healthcare service provisions on its occurrence is imperative. Additionally, the study projects future changes in these factors and assesses the potential impact of these changes on healthcare workforce requirements in the studied regions.