Natalini_et_al_2018.pdf (957.05 kB)
Download fileQuantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries
journal contribution
posted on 2023-07-26, 16:52 authored by Davide Natalini, Aled Jones, Giangiacomo BravoThe impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of) access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.
History
Refereed
- Yes
Volume
7Issue number
4Page range
4360-4385Publication title
SustainabilityISSN
2071-1050External DOI
Publisher
MDPIFile version
- Published version
Language
- eng
Report type
- Working Paper