posted on 2023-08-30, 16:39authored byRangan Gupta, Marco C. K. Lau, Xin Sheng
We study the transmission mechanism of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty across the US states. We analyse the contemporaneous and temporal causal relationships of uncertainty at the state level by utilising the Bayesian graphical VAR (BGVAR) model. Our results show that the current uncertainty of each state strongly depends on the previous level of uncertainty in its own state. We find evidence of strong contemporaneous and lagged dependence among US states. The analysis of this paper has important policy implications.
History
Refereed
Yes
Volume
540
Page range
123064
Publication title
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications