Global, regional, and national trends in liver disease-related mortality across 112 countries from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050: comprehensive analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

Background

Liver disease causes over two million deaths annually worldwide, comprising approximately 4% of all global fatalities. We aimed to analyze liver disease-related mortality trends from 1990 to 2021 using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database and forecast global liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050.

Methods

This study examined age-standardized liver disease-related death rates from 1990 to 2021, employing data from the WHO Mortality Database across 112 countries across five continents. The rates over time were calculated using a locally weighted scatter plot smoother curve, with weights assigned based on the population of each country. Furthermore, this study projected liver disease-related mortality rates up to 2050 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Additionally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to discern influencing factors such as population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes.

Results

The estimated global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates surged significantly from 1990 to 2021 across 112 countries, rising from 103.4 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.16, 118.74) in 1990 to 173.0 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 155.15, 190.95) in 2021. This upward trend was particularly pronounced in low- and middle-income countries, in Africa, and in populations aged 65 years and older. Moreover, age-standardized liver disease-related mortality rates were correlated with a lower Human Development Index (P < 0.001) and sociodemographic index (P = 0.001). According to the BAPC model, the projected trend indicated a sustained and substantial decline in liver disease-related mortality rates, with an estimated decrease from 185.08 deaths per 1,000,000 people (95% CI, 179.79, 190.63) in 2021 to 156.29 (112.32, 214.77) in 2050. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized liver disease-related deaths surged primarily due to epidemiological changes, whereas from 1990 to 2050, the impact of population aging and growth became the primary contributing factors to the overall increase.

Conclusion

Global age-standardized liver disease-related mortality has increased significantly and continues to emerge as a crucial global public health issue. Further investigation into liver disease-related mortality rates in Africa is needed, and updating policies is necessary to effectively manage the global burden of liver disease.