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An Emissions Offset Strategy to Accomplish 2 °C Long-Term Mitigation Goals in the European Union

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posted on 2024-08-05, 10:50 authored by Ilaria Perissi, Aled Jones

Regional carbon budgeting in policymaking is underutilized despite its importance for achieving global climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. In this work, we present the model PLEDGES, a novel system dynamic-based simulation tool that focuses on the European Union region to equitably distribute carbon budgets among the Member States and activate emissions offset strategies to manage unexpected deviations from the EU27 carbon budget. The emissions trading dynamic is based on the “Gains from Trade” approach. The tool also calculates the cost of the offset strategies based on the use of the abatement cost curves for the Member States. Using a case study of the recent increase in carbon emissions in Germany in response to reduced Russian gas supplies, different emissions scenarios for Germany’s quota redistribution among the Member States are explored. The study reveals varied cost implications of between 30–60 Eur/ton CO2eq to offset the emissions increase across other Member States. Final recommendations include promoting cross-border collaboration at the EU27 level.

History

Refereed

  • Yes

Volume

16

Issue number

11

Page range

4783-4783

Publication title

Sustainability

ISSN

2071-1050

Publisher

MDPI AG

File version

  • Published version

Language

  • eng

Affiliated with

  • Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) Outputs

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